The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear agreement, passed with great difficulty by Congress and was signed on July 14, 2015, but has been subjected to sustained criticism by the Republicans. Making good on his promise to either “fix it or nix it,” President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal on May 8, 2018, undermining the signature achievements of European foreign policy. The president promised to reinstate the full range of nuclear sanctions, including secondary ones which would force foreign firms to choose between being able to do business with either the United States or Iran.

While some of the criticism from the White House was directed towards the conditions of the agreement, two serious concerns relate to the manufacturing of ballistic missiles and the aggressive expansion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the Middle East. During the negotiations, his opponents urged the administration of President Barack Obama to link the agreement to limits on missile production and the curtailment of the IRGC’s activities. Because of the strong opposition from hardliners in Tehran, the Obama team decided to forgo any official linkage. Still, the White House expressed hope that the deal would promote peace and stability in the Middle East.

The current administration has pointed out that Iran has exploited the agreement. The IRGC, who are overseeing the missile project, have promised to increase the missile production “three-fold” despite U.S. and Europeans pressure to suspend it, and they have boasted that this would be in reaction to Trump’s hostile approach towards the IRGC. The White House has also noted that in using hundreds of millions of dollars that became available after the lifting of the sanctions, the IRGC had helped the Assad regime in Syria to wage bloody war on civilians, bolstered their terror network from Lebanon to Yemen, and turned Syria into a new front against Israel.

Supporters of the deal, including many European countries, have swiftly reacted to Trump’s decision and warned that the American departure would strengthen Iran’s hardliners and prompt Iran to resume uranium enrichment.For Europeans, Trump’s decision to pull outof the deal is not only a threat to their nonproliferation policy and regional stability, but also “a repudiation of the notion that Europe can influence Washington on security matters,” as one scholar noted.

To demonstrate their strong disappointment, the EU-3, (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) quickly issued a statement condemning Trump’s decision, expressing their “regret and concern” and reaffirming their determination to remain party to the nuclear agreement. However, Iranian officials, mostly from the hardline faction, have expressed skepticism that the Europeans will be able to continue honoring the nuclear agreement due to American pressure. The commander of the IRGC, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, told Fars News that he doubts if the European countries would be able to continue fulfil the provisions of the JCPOA, as “they are unable to make choices independent from the United States.”Saeed Jalili, another hardliner and the representative of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Supreme National Security Council said “Iran has given a limited opportunity to the Europeans to see whetherthey will be committed to the deal and whether they willguarantee Iran’s economic benefits out of the deal. If Iran’s concerns are not met, we will not hesitate to withdraw from the nuclear agreement.”

Kayhan newspaper, considered the mouthpiece of the Supreme Leader, wrote that the government’s optimism about “JCPOA without America” was an illusion because the Europeans even did not promise to remove sanctions in the “words” let alone in “practice”. The daily went on by mocking President Hassan Rouhani and sarcastically saying that “while the president was supposed to secure a guarantee from the Europeans to preserve Iran’s JCPOA interest after the U.S. withdrawal, he assured the Europeans that Iran would stand by the nuclear agreement.” Kayhan went on by quoting Ayatollah Khamenei, who said “I do not trust these three countries [UK, France and Germany]. It would be impossible to continue this way unless they givereal, meaningful and practical assurance.”

For the moderates, the response to the Trump’s decertification has been a difficult balancing act.For them, Iran and other JCPOA partners should focus on “JCPOA without America,” a strategy which demands Europeans make the hard decision not to follow the United States in waging financial war against Iran.Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister said it would be a fantasy to believe that the EU would break off its relationship with the United States, but he expects his European counterparts to “resist U.S. economic pressures” over its ballistic missile program and its regional policies.

Understanding the fact that both the EU and U.S. are on the same page with regards to Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional policies, Arman newspaper wrote that the apparent gap between the two powers is not real and both transatlantic partners are playing the role of “good cop, bad cop.” According to the daily, the United States exerts pressure and plays the role of bad cop, while Europeans are playing the role of the good cop by persuading Iran to return to negotiations and to agree to U.S. demands.

European powers defend the nuclear agreement, but they are also concerned about Iran’s aggressive foreign policy. This concern was outlined by Angela Merkel, German’s Chancellor when she said efforts to preserve the JCPOA by the Europeans does not mean they are happy with other Islamic Republic behavior. In a joint statement on October 13, 2017, the threeEU major powers (the United Kingdom, France and Germany), said that “as we work to preserve the JCPOA, we share concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities and . . . stand ready to take further appropriate measures to address these issues.”

But even the promise of honoring the nuclear agreement by EU looks unrealistic, precisely because they do not have strong counter-measures to protect business with Iran. Therefore, the prospect of mitigating the consequences of U.S. sanctions against companies that trade with Iran is far from reality. Experts argue that EU threats to ignore U.S. sanctions are not credible and are based largely on “outdated understandings of America’s Iran sanctions policy.” In the past, Europeans have responded to U.S. sanctions by backing regulations that disfavor the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO), but this dynamic changed in 2010, when Congress passed a new law prohibiting financial transactions with Iran.

In other words, European countries may try to protect companies from U.S. sanctions, but they will not be able to guarantee their access to the U.S. financial system. This issue was outlined in a statement by German officials that if Washington were to enforce secondary sanctions against firms trading with Tehran, they would be unable to protect them. Similarly, the UK Treasury announced that how UK companies act in response to U.S. sanctions is a commercial and legal decision for those companies. Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies disclosed that “behind closed doors, European diplomats are finally admitting that their companies will fully comply with U.S. sanctions going forward.”

All of this assumes that the U.S. can force other countries to abide by a restored sanctions regime. Total, the French energy company, may choose to exit Iran rather than face possible U.S. penalties.Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping company, and Swiss shipping major MSC have announced that they also reviewing their business with Iran.Airbus, the largest European plane-maker, has also decided that it will abide by renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran. China is expected to continue to import Iranian oil and back fill for European companies such as Total and other major European companies that want to leave Iran.

The European departure would strengthen Iran’s hardliners and prompt Iran to expel IAEA inspectors and to resume uranium enrichment at higher levels. Indeed, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was ordered to look into accelerating uranium enrichment.

It remains to be seen if the other signatories of the JCPOA can produce a package of incentives sufficient to keep Iran in the agreement while Trump is president.