While Iraq stands out with its rich ethnic and religious diversity, the fact that a national census has not been conducted for 27 years raises critical questions regarding social and economic sustainability. The problem of unregistered employment in the Iraqi economy is further compounded by “ghost employees” who receive salaries without performing any actual duties. These “ghost employees” remain unrecorded in official records due to the lack of a census. The November 20, 2024, census was expected to reveal Iraq’s demographic structure and provide specific data on economic transparency and employment policies. So, who exactly are these emerging “ghost employees”?

Uncertain Iraqi Population

Iraq currently has an estimated population of approximately 46.5 million. The official languages are Arabic and Kurdish, and the country is home to a predominantly Muslim population, comprising around 98%. It is estimated that 60-65% of the population identifies as Shia, while 30-35% belongs to the Sunni sect. The remaining portion comprises minorities such as Christians, Assyrians, and Chaldeans. Moreover, the most populous city is the capital, Baghdad.  In the context of ethnicity, according to estimation reports, approximately 20% of Iraq’s population is made up of Kurds, while 75% consists of Arabs. The remaining 5% represents other minorities. Data on Iraq’s population has long been presented based on the estimates and surveys of unofficial research centers, institutes, and organizations in Iraq.

In a country like Iraq, which encompasses diverse ethnic backgrounds, no official census has been conducted since 1997. The absence of a census in Iraq may be related to Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which is expected to determine the status of disputed regions. So, what is Article 140? The article says that when any change occurs in these areas, a census will be conducted in the region to determine whether the central government or the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will govern it, with the final decision being made through a referendum. Looking at the last population census conducted in 1997, it is evident that the exclusion of the Kurdish region contributed to the issue. Furthermore, Rebwar Taha, the governor of Kirkuk, one of the most disputed regions in Iraq, points out the economic importance of the census process and states that this census has an essential place not only for the development of Iraq but also for the future of Kirkuk.

However, Iraq conducted its first population census after 27 years on November 20. This census process has been continuously postponed due to political instability and other challenges. As is known, the 1997 census did not include the three provinces of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok) and faced various issues due to ongoing conflicts and loss of documentation. In the initiative planned for November, it is seen that international firms have been engaged to ensure accuracy and efficiency by using modern technology. The Iraqi Ministry of Planning was working with 130,000 census takers. The Iraqi government officials have also partnered with the United Nations Population Fund to facilitate the census scheduled for November 20.

The population census aimed to collect comprehensive social, economic, and demographic data with high certainty. The idea of​​ not including nationality and sects in the census led to criticism that the Iraqi government, which has a political structure based on ethnicity and sects, “politicized” the process.

The population census not only involves the collection of demographic data but also has the potential to reshape political balances in the region. Conducting the census without considering past demographic changes and displacement issues could lead to results susceptible to political manipulation. It has been observed that the Kurds are concerned that this population census will not include the processes of past displacement, which could result in outcomes favoring Arab and Turkmen groups. Because after the census results, other ethnic minorities, mainly the Kurds, are worried about their political influence and economic rights decreasing.

However, it can be said that the demographic structure of Iraqi cities, which is essential not only for the KRG but also for the Baghdad government, has inevitably changed since 1997 due to land and political disputes. The Ministry of Planning stated that it would conduct the population census without distinguishing between regions, emphasizing this as an economic and development necessity for Iraq. In his statements regarding the census, Prime Minister Al-Sudani underlined that the census would advance the success of the Iraq Development Plan. He supported all necessary financial and logistical processes in this context.

Unemployment Rate in Iraq

The population census plays a crucial role in states obtaining accurate data and subsequently developing growth plans for the coming years.  Because it also facilitates tracking progress within the country through comparative analysis. The absence of such a process in Iraq ultimately affects the economy. One significant data revealed through the census is the unemployment rate. The Iraqi state, which sustains its economy through rich oil resources and trade, is dealing with unemployment issues in its economy. However, in recent years, under the Sudani administration, we have seen a decline in the unemployment rate. Nevertheless, it still holds a significant place in the current Iraqi economy.

Unemployment in Iraq has recently become a pressing issue. The primary causes include rising military and defense expenditures, security challenges, and a weakened private sector. Population growth is also among the demographic factors contributing to unemployment. Unofficial data shows Iraq’s population growth has remained stable over the past six years. Although the growth rate has remained consistent for many years, unemployment has challenged the country’s economy.

Today, the unemployment problem in Iraq is of substantial economic, social, and security importance. Because more than 2.5 million people in Iraq are unemployed, this indicates a national unemployment rate of 14.5%.

Although declines in the unemployment rate in the Iraqi economy, an increase in the unemployment rate results in a reduction of productivity, leading to a deflation of human capital. Moreover, unemployment causes extreme poverty, contributing to social unrest and affecting politics and the economy. Therefore, in this process, the Sudani administration should focus on sustaining economic sustainability and increasing employment in both the public and private sectors.     

Appearance of Shadows: Ghost Employee Issues

According to statements made last month by Muwaffaq Hussein, member of the Iraqi Parliament’s Economic Committee, 66,000 of the 106,000 people working within the ministry are “ghost employees.” So, who are these ghost employees, and what significance do they hold in the country’s economy?

Ghost employees are registered in the payroll system but do not work. This situation often arises from including an unreal person in the system but can also be caused by unintentional registration. Ghost employees are a form of fraud that leads to significant economic losses.

Nevertheless, a notable aspect for Iraq is the arguments of “ghost employees,” specifically among soldiers affiliated with the Ministry of Defense. In recent months, a secret letter between the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani made headlines in Iraq. According to the letter’s content, there are claims of “ghost soldiers” within the army.

Ghost soldiers are a group that receives payment while absent from duty or failing to fulfill their responsibilities. This threatens not only the Iraqi economy but also the reputation of the military. Considering Iraq’s management processes over years of conflict and instability, this economic class could affect trust in the government and the army.

The potential of the census to identify ghost employees highlights systemic issues such as corruption and inefficiency within the Iraqi state. Accurate data collection could lead to significant reforms that address these problems. The census is an inevitable way to identify ghost employees and implement measures in that direction. Economists also argue that obtaining accurate data holds significant potential for identifying individuals who create major distrust in the Iraqi economy by receiving multiple salaries.

Furthermore, Baghdad University Economics Professor Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani emphasized in his statements that the job identification process planned for 2017 was a crucial step in determining the number of “ghost employees.” He also noted that the government had overlooked this plan, adding that the census on November 20 needed to focus on Iraq’s economic future rather than be politicized.

Conclusion

As a result, a fair census across Iraq was critical for long-term development strategies. Because the census could have resulted in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq playing a decisive role in Iraq’s future. Thus, all ethnic and sectarian groups needed to approach the process cautiously.

In addition, modernizing the census process using advanced technology contributes to Iraq’s political future and increases the reliability of the census results. In addition, the census was not just a bureaucratic process; it was a critical tool for rebuilding a functional state structure in the region in line with economic development goals and solving long-standing sociopolitical problems.

However, the most critical issue that needs to be considered in the process is the “ghost employees.”  The government should not see ghost employees as just an economic issue because it creates a broader central management problem rather than a socio-economic problem. It is possible to say that ghost employees reflect corruption and deficiencies in the merit system. If the source and causes of the problem are not identified, it may also harm social security.

 

1 “A Diagnostic of the Informal Economy of Iraq”, p.11, https://iraq.un.org/sites/default/files/remote-resources/b6279ff7f83c9be8328efa58540ddf84.pdf (Access Date: 10.11.2024).