Abstract: The preservation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will play a key role in Moscow–Tehran relations. Currently, Russia is looking for options to offset the negative effect of Trump’s decision on Iran and the tenuous future of the nuclear deal. When Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Moscow on May 14, 2018, his goal was to discuss the future of the Iranian nuclear deal with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. The men also used the meeting to discuss the wider agenda of their countries’ bilateral relations, but above all, Zarif confirmed that they seriously intended to continue economic cooperation despite new U.S. sanctions. However, Tehran would count on Russia as the last resort, he said. Moscow can offer Iran only diplomatic support and some marginal measures to mitigate the negative effect of American sanctions. This is largely explained by the lack of economic and political potential to help Iran, although, if it could, Moscow would definitely assist Tehran in sanctions evasion. One should expect that Moscow will make a lot of noise on the diplomatic track trying to mobilize the international community against the United States. Russian businesses, on the other hand, are choosing a wait-and-see strategy.
About the Author:
Nikolay Kozhanov is a Research Associate Professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University. He is also a Consulting Fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House. His research interests are focused on the geopolitics of the Gulf energy, Russian foreign policy in the Middle East as well as Iran’s economy and international relations. Nikolay holds his PhD in economics from St.Petersburg State University (2010). He also has an MA degree in Oriental Studies (2006, St.Petersburg State University) and MA degree in Middle Eastern Studies (2012, University of Exeter). Dr. Kozhanov has been a visiting fellow at a number of leading international think tanks including Chatham House and the Carnegie Moscow Center. His recent publications include Russia and the Syrian Conflict: Moscow’s Domestic, Regional and Strategic Interests (Gerlach Press 2016); Iran’s Strategic Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy 1979-2017. (London, Berlin: Gerlach Press, 2018) and Russian Policy across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods (Chatham House 2018).