Alp Cenk ArslanThe return of the dynasty: Could Assad be readmitted to the international community?
During the long period of Syrian crisis, many interesting turning points have been experienced. One of the most remarkable of these happened recently after a Russian passenger plane took off from Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, on the way to Damascus. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir surprisingly chose to meet Bashar al-Assad of Syria.
The controversial meeting with the long-time Sudanese president marked a first after more than seven years in which no Arab leader has had an official meeting with Assad.[1] If the theories which put Russia behind that surprise visit are set aside, it is possible to argue that the axis on the Arab peninsula and Gulf is seeking to find new channels to re-approach to the Assad government.
Last week’s surprises were not confined only to Bashir’s visit. It was also reported by Russian news site Sputnik that Iraqi President Berham Saleh is planning to make an official visit to Damascus. Iraqi presidential spokesman Luqman al-Faili denied the rumours, saying that “no preparation had been made for a visit to Syria yet”.[2] A few days ago, U.S.
envoy to Syria James Jeffrey’s remarks on pushing Assad towards reconciliation rather than trying to oust him found a response from French Foreign Ministry sources, who announced that “it is not realistic to imagine Bashar al-Assad staying in power in a reconciled Syria”.[3] In a time of efforts towards a consensus through a new constitution in Syria,[4] it seems that many actors both inside and out of the region can imagine the war-torn country’s future remaining under the Assad regime.
The Arab League and Claims of Syrian Readmission 
The idea of making up with Assad is not a new tendency among Arab states. In recent days, the Guardian reported that the Arab League, which consists of 22 countries, is seeing a growing consensus that Syria should be readmitted to the bloc through a vote in early 2019, while the U.S. has been pressuring Saudi Arabia and Egypt not to hold such a vote.[5]
The league had expelled Syria in 2011 after the Assad regime began its bloody repression of protests in the country. However, as seen in the Guardian’s claim, its latest change in position suggests that Assad may be making a return to diplomatic circles in the region, especially after the war turned in his favor.
Recent months have included strong clues that could support this claim. In the beginning of October, Bashar al-Assad gave an interview to a Kuwaiti newspaper called Al-Shahed. It was Assad’s first interview with a Gulf newspaper since the crisis began in 2011. In the interview, Assad said that Arab and Western delegations had begun visiting Syria to prepare for the reopening of diplomatic and other missions.
He also praised the Kuwaiti leader and called him a “problem solver”.[6] Right before the interview, a scene in which the Syrian and Bahraini foreign ministers kissed and hugged each other on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly had been reflected in the media. Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa had told Al-Arabia that it was not an arranged encounter, while other planned ones weren’t caught on camera. Al-Khalifa’s words represented a change in his country’s position on the crisis.[7]
In June, the United Arab Emirates’ foreign minister Anwar Gargash said it was a mistake to expel Syria from the Arab League.[8] After a governmental source from Damascus told Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Emirati officials had been meeting with the Syrian regime to restore its diplomatic mission in Damascus,[9] the Gulf country reopened its embassy at the end of 2018. Bahrain has also announced that it is about to open its embassy after 7 years.
There are other regional actors who agree with Assad’s government role in the future of Syria. The two largest militaries in the Arab world, Egypt and Algeria, have been supporting Assad for a long time. Both countries recently offered military support to the Syrian regime.
The timeline of the rapprochement process initiated by the aforementioned actors tells us a lot. The Sudanese president’s visit to Damascus gains meaning when it is interpreted as a gesture of friendship on behalf of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s rapprochement with Syrian government could be seen as a new strategy that aims at pulling Assad out of Tehran’s sphere of influence.
Both regional actors have begun offering economic support to Damascus for the reconstruction of Syria. According to their official statements, they also perceive the Turkish military presence in Qatar, Iraq and Syria as a threat. Therefore, the motivation behind their rapprochement and support could be the containment of two of the Astana partners in the region.
Actors from the West and Other Regions 
U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of his country’s withdrawal from Syria was another big surprise in recent days. It seems that the Trump administration is prepared to leave Syria while seeking help from Turkey to fight against ISIS and from Saudi Arabia to financially reconstruct the country. Trump might be able to eliminate his military’s monopoly in decision-making in the region with the help of the U.S. State Department and CIA. He might have sought to prevent NATO from being damaged by a possible conflict with Turkey.
Whatever he is planning, it seems that the U.S.’s absence from Syria will ease Assad’s path. Last year, it was reported that the U.S. administration would let Assad stay in power until 2021, the next general elections. The Guardian’s allegation mentioned earlier on in this article also includes details about Western nations’ positions on this issue. According to the outlet, European diplomats are critical about a possible initiative being carried out by the Arab League. “There is no credible, genuine settlement process underway in Syria,” an unnamed European official told the paper.
On the other hand, the French foreign ministry still find a Syrian future under an Assad presidency unrealistic. Israel, another regional actor that has been operating in the Southern Syria, has announced that the U.S. withdrawal will increase Israel’s role in the conflict. Israel is not happy for Syria to continue on with Assad.
When it comes to Turkey, a close neighbor of Syria, its foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has remarked upon the possibility of cooperating with Assad “if elected by democratic elections under UN observation” during a conference in Qatar. On the other hand, in his statements, Turkish President Erdogan still emphasizes the massacres that Assad government has carried out so far.
It appears that a possible Turkish involvement to the Northeastern Syria after withdrawal of U.S. forces will draw new lines and bring about new conditions in the issue of Turkey’s relationship with the Assad government.
However, it must be said that when the conflicted camps, polarization among regional parties and projects for the future of Syria are taken into consideration, Syria keeping Assad as leader is unlikely to lead to less conflict in the region.
References
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/sudan-bashir-arab-leader-visit-syria-war-began-181217005423314.html
[2] https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/12/19/after-bashir-iraqi-president-barham-salih-to-visit-syria
[3] https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/france-says-not-realistic-for-assad-to-stay-in-power/
[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkey-russia-iran-want-syria-led-political-process/2018/12/18/8e266a58-02e1-11e9-958c-0a601226ff6b_story.html?utm_term=.6ad7bd2886cd
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/26/arab-league-set-to-readmit-syria-eight-years-after-expulsion
[6] https://www.voanews.com/a/syria-s-assad-reaches-understanding-with-arab-states/4598574.html
[7] https://www.newsweek.com/arab-nations-meet-deadly-crisis-syria-rare-moment-friendship-among-foes-1147625
[8] https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/dr-anwar-gargash-solving-the-qatar-crisis-must-involve-tackling-the-trust-deficit-1.737701
[9] http://www.ng.ru/world/2018-11-12/1_7436_immigrant.html