Webinar description: 

The violence and internal war among the Iraqi Shia have stopped for now, but the country’s political crisis has only deepened. Despite 11 months passing from its early parliamentary elections, Iraq has yet to see a new cabinet. This is the longest government formation in Iraq history. Different analyses are being suggested on what are the different possible scenarios and outcomes of the current crisis. While it has problems of its own, another early election is seen as the most likely scenario. An early election is going to confront issues of voter fatigue and people being distrustful of democracy. There is also a scenario of the continuation of the current government under the leadership of Mustafa al-Kadhimi. In this panel, the speakers will share their take on the outlook for the near future in Iraq.

Speakers:

• Fanar Hadad, Assistant Professor, University of Copenhagen.
• Bilal Wahab, Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,
• Lahib Higel, Senior Iraq Analyst at Crisis Group

Moderator: 

Kamaran Palani, Associate Fellow, Al Sharq Strategic Research

Date & Time: 

Thursday

22 September 2022

16:30-18:00 (Baghdad & Istanbul time)

Location: Zoom 

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Panel description: 

The political scene of the Middle East has experienced important transformations in a short time frame. The Qatar blockade has been lifted, Turkey and UAE entered a swift rapprochement process and Gulf countries have started normalization talks with Iran. There are various explanations for this abrupt change. Focusing on economic explanations, some assert that governments have started to prioritize economic interests over ideology.  This could be partly explained by the increasing cost of lingering conflicts.  Another important factor is the increasing focus of the oil-rich countries on the attempts to diversify their economy. The push for diversification increases the stakes for economic cooperation and bilateral trade deals. 

This workshop will explore the economics of the de-escalation process. It will address whether the economic factors are driving the new atmosphere of dialogue. Will this rapprochement process last? What will be the impact of higher fuel prices on the de-escalation incentives?  How will the trade and economic cooperation in the region evolve and will it ease the diversification attempts of Gulf countries? How would a possible Iran nuclear deal affect the direction of the de-escalation process? This panel will delve into these questions and more.

Speakers: 

Tarik Yousef: Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution

Carole Nakhle: CEO of Crystol Energy 

Moderator: 

Nurullah Gulec: Al Sharq Strategic Research 

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