Elif Beyza KaraaliogluIran is Bracing for Biden’s Presidency 
After a long November 2020 election process, with a record turnout, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the election and declared his victory on November 7. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris’s victory received many greetings from world leaders.
The world is different now in many ways since Trump was first elected as the President of the U.S. Indeed, the last four years were not only surprising for the U.S. but for the whole world. International politics experienced an era of rising populism, personalization, and de-institutionalisation. Transatlantic relations radically changed and diverged.
To cite a few examples, transatlantic divergences clearly manifested themselves when the Trump administration unilaterally decided to abandon important international treaties such as: Paris Climate Accord in 2017, JCPOA in 2018, INF Treaty with Russia in 2019, and the continuing uncertainty over the future of the New START Treaty. Certainly, Trump’s withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal dealt a near death blow to the deal, irrespective of European, Russian, or Chinese criticism. As Trump is poised to leave the stage, will Biden make a difference on the JCPOA?
After long and cumbersome negotiations, JCPOA was signed in 2015 during the Obama Administration when Joe Biden was vice-president. It was agreed between Iran and P5+1 (Britain, France, China, Germany, Russia, and the U.S.).
Though one should not underestimate the fact that Trump can still complicate Biden’s chance of re-engaging Iran, many still await Biden’s strategy on Iran, including his policy on JCPOA, once he assumes presidency. Again, despite Biden’s team expressed desire to going back to the nuclear deal, the hurdles to achieve this goal is greater.
In his opinion piece, which was published on CNN before the election, Joe Biden stated that “If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations”. One of the key areas on the U.S.-Iran relations is the question of sanctions, which the Trump administration previously imposed. Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy certainly affected Iran’s economy. Based on Joe Biden’s statement, his future Iran strategy seems to be going hand in hand with diplomacy.
Despite the fact that president-elect Joe Biden said in his article that “I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy”, it is not certain whether there will be a new negotiation or not. Regarding a nuclear deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently said in a televised cabinet speech, “the next person can put up a nice piece of paper and sign it and it just needs a signature, we’ll be back where we were.
It takes no time and needs no negotiations”. The UK, Germany, and France previously met to discuss the Iran nuclear deal. Moreover, the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi on 27 November 2020 shows the fight over nuclear weapons in the region. Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the killing has “serious indications” of an Israeli role. This also indicates that it is not only Trump giving resistance but also significant regional resistance from, for example, the Gulf states or Israel, against diplomatic path between the US and Iran on the nuclear dossier.
If the U.S. becomes successful in returning to the deal, this can have three possible implications for the long term. The first scenario, which is a weakening scenario, is Iran trying to develop a nuclear weapon. Building strong trust among member parties has two sides, and Iran’s compliance with the requirements of the agreement is one necessary and vital part.
Second, considering the discussion regarding the future of the Iran nuclear deal and its continuity, if the U.S. rejoins the agreement then this can bring an opportunity to establish a new dialogue and maintain the JCPOA via bringing optimism about its future. Lastly, this can both fix the U.S.’s reputation after the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the key international and bilateral agreements, and it can also strengthen and bring hope to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Considering the current situation of non-proliferation, it is necessary to keep JCPOA alive. There are expectations from the incoming Biden administration. Rebuilding trust will be key. The coming months and the next June 2021 presidential election in Iran will also have an impact on the progress between Washington and Tehran as well as the future of the JCPOA.
