Last year in April, political struggles among generals in the ruling Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC), formed by military and civilian wings following the fall of the Omar al-Bashir regime in 2019, led to the armed conflict between the Sudanese Army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. Influence and provocations from foreign powers ignited and turned the political struggle in the TSC into Sudan’s third civil war. Now, Sudan is witnessing a devastating conflict that is causing a terrible humanitarian disaster, and the country is on the verge of total collapse. If it hasn’t yet, it is because of the spirit of social solidarity among the Sudanese people.

The state and its army are not able to stop the RSF’s attacks that were established officially as a paramilitary force in 2013 by the Omar al-Bashir regime in order to suppress regional riots in Darfur and South Kordofan. However, in the end, it turned its gun barrel to its owner, the Sudanese state. RSF, known usually as Janjaweed, has been part of the security architecture of Sudan since 2003 when tribal conflict broke out in the Darfur region of Sudan. Janjaweed played a role in suppressing tribal riots in the region and later became a legal apparatus of the state. It used to be treated as a legal part of the Sudanese army until the conflict began last year.

Since becoming independent in 1956, Sudan has experienced multiple conflicts and humanitarian crises. The first civil war (1955–1969) and the second civil war (1983–2005), in addition to the Darfur Crisis since 2003, left millions of dead and displaced people. Regional conflicts and human suffering existed except during the peace period of 1972–1983. However, this time, Sudan is witnessing a more devastating crisis affecting both the center and periphery.

The Worst Humanitarian Crisis in the World

Over 10 million Sudanese have been displaced since the third civil war started. 26 million Sudanese are struggling to get food, and that means half of the entire population is in danger of starvation. According to the United Nations, the country is witnessing one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Lack of funding, in addition to weak awareness of the humanitarian situation, makes things worse for Sudanese. Moreover, unfortunately, the catastrophic humanitarian condition in Sudan is underreported due to the Gaza crisis.

Sudanese people are rambling around barefoot in search of a safe place. State institutions are not functional except in Port Sudan and its surroundings. The capital, Khartoum, is a big mystery because it is partially controlled by two armies. And each blames the other for the current humanitarian disaster.

Agriculture is still the main economic activity in Sudan; however, recent attacks in farming areas have potentially impacted agricultural harvests. The main agricultural land in Al Jazeera faces a drop in production due to conflict and displacement. According to Al Jazeera and Al Managil Farmers Alliance, agricultural activities dropped dramatically 72%, which could increase food shortages across the country. The fear is that farmer displacement might cause a famine if the production fall persists. The immediate reflection of damage in the agricultural sector will be price increases.

The disruption of Sudanese families might be the worst result of the war. Nowadays, families escape from attacks and immigrate to unknown places in search of safety. They look for shelter in deserted schools or IDP (internally displaced people) camps if they have not become a refugee in Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, or Egypt yet. This mobility creates fragmentation for families, and it is becoming difficult for them to stay connected under these desperate circumstances.

In the Darfur region, the RSF committed ethnic cleansing against Masalit and drove out thousands of local residents along the Chad border. El Fashir, one of the five provinces of Darfur, remained resistant to RSF attacks. Zamzam IDP camp, home to a considerable number of IDPs, and other camps in the region have already started facing famine and death of malnourished children.

The majority of health facilities across the country are out of function due to RSF shelling of hospitals. A paramilitary group uses hospitals as military bases. However, the attacks are not limited to hospitals; RSF atrocities against civilians include rape, forced marriage, looting, and ethnic cleansing.

This man-made crisis left no hope for Sudanese youth. Schools and universities remain closed, and there is no sign of returning to education soon. Armed conflicts absorb Sudan’s young generations into the war by forcing them to take arms near one side for survival.

As a result, the deeper the conflict, the more Sudanese become dependent on foreign aid. However, lack of funding and unsafety impose serious challenges for the delivery of humanitarian aid to affected areas in Sudan. There is no safe corridor yet that aid agencies can use to reach Sudanese people in need of humanitarian aid.

Sudan’s Future Robbed by Foreign Powers

It is also difficult to consider what’s happening in Sudan as an isolated internal matter. Foreign powers, both regional and global, have certain influences over Sudan. However, outside players usually play a negative role by destabilizing the country and deepening the catastrophe when they preserve their geopolitical interests in Sudan. For that, some prefer calling what Sudan is having today not a civil war but a proxy war between rival poles. When considering the role of external powers, it might not be an exaggeration.

Among the foreign influencers, the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in flaming the conflict in Sudan by arming the RSF has now become clear, but there is no mechanism that would stop the UAE from financing the war in Sudan. Sudanese state authorities continuously condemn the UAE for fueling the conflict by supplying arms to the RSF. UN officials also consider this allegation that the UAE has been sending arms and ammunition to RSF through Chad by cargo planes as credible.

In the latest statement, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry clearly said, “If the UAE is truly concerned about the blood and safety of Sudanese citizens, it should cease providing the militia with weapons used to kill our people and deprive them of food and aid. Only then will peace be achieved and humanitarian suffering alleviated.” Foreign Affairs Magazine described the UAE’s role in Sudan as a secret war organizer.

The allegations against the UAE are serious. However, interestingly, the UK Foreign Office is trying to suppress those critics by putting pressure on African diplomats, according to the Guardian report. Moreover, UK officials had secret talks with the RSF for “humanitarian reasons.” It appears that both the UAE and the UK have a role in legitimizing RSF activities. Under these weird circumstances, it is not a false claim to say that Sudan’s future is robbed by armies supported by foreign powers.

Both warring parties seek the support of external powers in order to take advantage of each other. The SAF commanders continuously condemn the role of the UAE in Sudan as a destabilizer and seek a way to balance the UAE’s role. The Sudanese army is not hesitant to reach Russia, Egypt, Iran, or Türkiye for military backing. Russia has the ambition to establish a naval base in Port Sudan; Iran and Türkiye reluctant to confront the UAE. Neighboring Egypt, surrounded by multiple crises, has no capacity to play the role of a game changer in Sudan.

The warring armies, SAF and RSF, have not yet reached any peace deal suggested by the US and Saudi Arabia in Riyadh talks. The US became aware that Riyadh peace talks do not cultivate a peace deal. Thus, the US now has the ambition to divert new talks to Switzerland. However, the Sudanese army was reluctant to join the Geneva process before initially agreeing with the US negotiators over the legitimacy and representation of RSF. If it takes place, the hope for a new peace deal in Geneva will remain weak.

Risk of a New Balkanization

Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has had a fear of Balkanization on its soil because of weak institutions and ethnic and religious diversity. As is known, the country lost its southern part in 2011 after a referendum supported by the US. Right now, the existence of an armed group parallel to the national army imposes a new Balkanization risk for Sudan.

The Sudanese army lost sovereignty over a considerable part of Sudan. The RSF is a dominant power in a large part of the Darfur region, in addition to parts of Khartoum and the southeastern part of the country. The army still controls parts of Khartoum, the eastern cities, and the north of the country; however, there are conflicts in 10 out of 18 states of Sudan, and the RSF overruns 8 states across the country.

The first and second civil wars in Sudan, which lasted 39 years in total (1955–1972) and 1983–2005, caused secession, a huge death toll, and millions of displaced people. Nowadays, the country is witnessing the third civil war, and indicators hint that the conflict might take place longer than expected. The country is facing new fragmentations. So far, the spirit of social solidarity has only kept Sudanese standing. There was a spirit of revolution in 2019 when the former regime ended up. 5 years later, in Sudan, the political process for democratization has terminated, economic activities have been disrupted, social structures have degraded, and conflict, famine, food shortages, and a dire humanitarian environment have become a daily reality for the Sudanese.