Since gaining independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh’s political culture has undergone various stages of transformation. Issues such as political autonomy, language rights, and discrimination were significant from 1947 to 1971. The political environment was further shaped by the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, military coups, and various phases of democratization up to 1990. From 1990 to 2006, Bangladesh experienced a genuine democratic period. However, following 2009, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, the country transitioned once again from democratic governance to an authoritarian system(1).

After 16 years of rule, culminating in August 2024, the downfall of Sheikh Hasina’s regime became apparent following significant protests. This raises a critical question: beyond constitutional, judicial, and political reforms, how will the interim government formulate its foreign policy, and how will global powers respond to the current authority in order to protect their interests in Bangladesh?

From July’s Uprising to August 5 Revolution

Looking at Sheikh Hasina’s regime is crucial for understanding the transition from the three weeks of the July uprising to the August 5 revolution. Her 16-year tenure was characterized by extrajudicial killings, abductions, and imprisonments, with corruption, nepotism, and severe human rights violations being commonplace(2). 

The connection between the July uprising and the subsequent events can be understood by examining the students’ demands, spearheaded by Dhaka University, for reforming the controversial job quota system. Although the system was abolished in 2018, it was reinstated in June 2024. The regime’s authoritarian response to the protesters, including the labeling of them as “Razakars” (traitors) by former Prime Minister Hasina, intensified the movement, eventually ending in a student-led mass revolution on August 5(3).

Despite Sheikh Hasina’s regime’s harsh response to the protesters, the widespread participation of students from schools, colleges, and both public and private universities—particularly the significant involvement of female students—and the effective use of social media transformed what began as a simple protest into a mass revolution. This broad mobilization ultimately drew intense global attention(4).

Strategic Rivalries and Great Power Competition

Geopolitical dynamics in Bangladesh have gained significant importance, particularly following the departure of the former Prime Minister. The pressing issue now is determining the geopolitical strategy of the current interim government and how global powers will respond to it. During Hasina’s tenure, maintaining balanced relations between India and China, along with stable ties with the USA until 2018, was crucial in understanding the geopolitical shifts among global actors. Notably, the USA’s sanctions on certain members of Hasina’s regime in 2021 serve as a key indicator of changing U.S. behavior in this context (5).

Given that the current transition in Bangladesh is critical for understanding the future foreign policies of various countries, especially since Bangladesh is a focal point for global great power competition, it is essential to follow up on how India, China, the USA, the EU, Russia, and Middle Eastern nations are advancing their interests and cooperation with Bangladesh. 

Strategic Rivalries and Locating India’s Position

To explore the attitude of “emerging great power” India towards the current interim government, it is evident that India aims to approach the new administration with caution and gradualism. India was a key supporter of the former Prime Minister and her regime, offering substantial logistical, technical, adaptive, and international support throughout her 16-year tenure. Despite limited global backing for the regime, especially after the undemocratic elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024, India played a vital role in maintaining its regional and international support. It is important to recognize that India’s cooperation with Bangladesh was primarily motivated by security considerations and shared religious ideological interests. 

Since 1971, India has been instrumental in shaping Bangladesh, with the Bangladesh Awami League serving as a trusted ally. The potential loss of the Awami League’s dominant position could significantly affect India’s relationship with Bangladesh’s current interim government. On a positive note, India seeks to position Bangladesh as a model of peace and stability, showcasing to the world that countries nurturing peaceful relations with India will thrive. Through this approach, India aims to reaffirm its role in global politics, particularly amid the shifting global order. However, one of India’s major missteps in Bangladesh was relying solely on a single authoritarian government and failing to build political alliances with other groups within the country. 

Therefore, the recent change in Bangladesh represents a significant shock for India. It is evident that no country was more dismayed by Sheikh Hasina’s downfall than India. New Delhi had invested heavily in Hasina and the Awami League, viewing them as the only viable option. India has long endorsed Hasina’s claim that she was the sole bulwark against a Bangladesh destabilized by Islamist forces, thus making her ouster particularly concerning.

It is important to note that India has no viable alternative but to engage deeply with Bangladesh, as instability there poses a greater risk to India than a stable Bangladesh. Continued involvement is essential for maintaining and advancing India’s current projects and investments in Bangladesh, as well as ensuring peace and security in India’s northeastern region and West Bengal. While withdrawing cooperation might offer short-term advantages, it would lead to significant long-term losses for India’s regional interests. Moreover, such a withdrawal would provide China with a substantial opportunity to expand its influence in Bangladesh, potentially extending beyond economic investments to encompass security, political, military, and defense concerns. 

Strategic Rivalries and Post-Hasina China-Bangladesh Relations

Since 2013, China has emerged as a major global and regional power through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with a strong focus on South Asia, including Bangladesh. After 2017 and the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China intensified its engagement in South Asia. Despite competition with the USA and India, China’s primary goal is to secure economic and investment opportunities in Bangladesh.

Since 2009, China’s influence has grown due to Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule, which facilitated favorable conditions for China over Western interests. However, after 2021 and the introduction of the USA’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, there has been increased American pushback against Chinese actions in Bangladesh. In response, China seeks to balance its policy with India while maintaining its focus on Bangladesh due to its strategic importance in the Bay of Bengal. This position connects China to the Indian Ocean and links Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Pakistan, Iran, and the Horn of Africa region.

So far, it is evident that China has responded positively to the post-Hasina interim government led by Dr. Yunus. As previously noted, China prioritizes the safety and security of its trade, economy, and investments over the identity of any ruling party. Consequently, the recent changes in Bangladesh are unlikely to significantly impact China’s stance or its dealings with the interim government, even with future political transitions. However, it is clear that China’s ability to protect its interests may not be as straightforward with the current interim government as it was with the Hasina regime. The interim government appears to have greater engagement with Western countries, particularly the USA, which could complicate China’s efforts to secure its interests.

In the current transitional crisis, Bangladesh is increasingly reliant on China for financial support and continuous investment. However, the future will reveal how the interim government directs its relationship with China, especially given its other political, diplomatic, and security priorities with the USA.

Placing USA in the Current Battleground of Great Power Competition in Bangladesh

It is obvious that the USA aims to include Bangladesh within its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) framework. Under the Hasina regime, this objective was somewhat balanced, given the regime’s strong economic and investment ties with China. For the current interim government, positioning itself between China and the USA appears to be a lower priority at present. Although there is a clear intention to cultivate a more amicable relationship with the USA and EU countries, it remains to be seen how they will structure their strategic relations with the West.

Historically, the USA’s approach to Bangladesh was influenced by its relationship with India. However, since 2021, and particularly evident during the 2024 national elections in Bangladesh, it has become clear that U.S. policy toward the Hasina regime diverged significantly from India’s policy. Despite both countries sharing a strategic interest in the Indo-Pacific region, their policies differ based on strategic priorities in various countries, with Bangladesh serving as a prominent example of this divergence.

In a global context, Dr. Yunus, a Nobel Peace Laureate, has enjoyed favorable treatment from the West; however, the situation in Bangladesh may be more complex. With a population of 170 million, Bangladesh’s priorities may lean more toward economic, trade, and investment interests rather than solely focusing on the security interests of the USA or the EU. In the future, a critical question for Bangladesh will be which countries invest more heavily in the country and which markets it exports to. Therefore, whether under the interim government or a future democratic administration, China’s role in investment cannot be overlooked, while the importance of the USA and EU as key partners for imports remains significant.

In the future, the USA’s strategy may place the next Bangladeshi administration in a dualistic position. This could arise from American security interests in Myanmar or from its broader long-term goals in the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Currently, the USA primarily engages through frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes India, Japan, and Australia, or AUKUS, which involves the UK and Australia. However, in the future, countries like Bangladesh might gain increased importance in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, recent initiatives such as the India-USA-led Middle East-European Economic Corridor (IMMEC) will likely enhance Bangladesh’s significance for logistical, technical, and networking support.    

Indeed, one could argue that in the future, the USA will find itself needing Bangladesh more to effectively implement its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) rather than the other way around. The evolving geopolitical priorities will determine how these dynamics shape regional interests and policy.  

Priorities of Other Global Actors

Other actors, such as Russia or EU countries like France or Germany, currently play a very limited role in Bangladesh, particularly during the interim government period. Their influence is less about their interests in Bangladesh and more about how the interim government shapes its policy towards countries like Russia. It is clear that the Dr. Yunus-led interim government is unlikely to become entangled in Russia’s complex geopolitical maneuvers, whether related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Russia-India energy relations.

On the other hand, traditionally, the Middle Eastern region, especially the Gulf area, holds significant importance for Bangladesh due to its substantial diaspora of approximately five million people residing predominantly in Gulf countries. For the current interim government, a key policy issue involves addressing the situation of nearly 57 Bangladeshi immigrants who were arrested by UAE authorities during protests against the Hasina regime. One of the interim government’s priorities is to engage with UAE officials to secure the release of these Bangladeshi immigrants from detention.

Additionally, the current interim government aims to reinforce its secular image to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, emphasizing that there is no possibility for political Islamic parties to gain significant power in Bangladesh. This commitment to secularism was a factor in Dr. Yunus being selected by student groups and senior citizens following Sheikh Hasina’s downfall. While it is true that Islamic political parties, such as Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), may play a prominent role in future elections, it is unlikely that BJI will achieve a majority in Bangladesh. Furthermore, if Islamic political parties were to gain a majority, there is a risk that Bangladesh could face challenges similar to those experienced by Islamic parties in Egypt or Tunisia. 

A Road Ahead

For the current interim government, up until now, it is clear that foreign policy will not be an immediate top priority. Instead, the focus will be on reforming the constitution, addressing law and order, improving the economy, and ensuring a democratic, free, and fair election.

Despite this, there are a few immediate foreign policy concerns. One is managing relations with India, particularly in the context of dealing with Sheikh Hasina while she remains in the country. Another is addressing issues related to Bangladesh’s neighbor, Myanmar. The escalating conflict in Myanmar poses a risk of increased spillover effects and a surge in Rohingya refugees.

Once the government is able to dedicate more attention to foreign policy—an outcome anticipated as Bangladesh stabilizes and balances its relations with great and regional powers, middle powers, the West, and the Global South—its approach to international issues will become more obvious.

References

1-  Islam, M. Nazmul. (2022). Bangladesh (Bangladeş), In Hüseyin Türkan eds. Güney Asya Ülke Analizleri. Istanbul: Gasam. Available at https://gasam.org.tr/guney-asya-ulke-analizleri-kitap-pdf/

2- Islam, M. Nazmul (2024). Bangladesh 2.0: A new path for equality, human dignity and justice. Anadolu Agency, 06 August 2024. Available at https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/opinion-bangladesh-20-a-new-path-for-equality-human-dignity-and-justice/3297060

3- Bangladesh: From a student protest to a movement. Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9hAT1xd-xY&t=9s

4- EkoTürk TV (11 August 2024). Bangladeş’te iktidar değişimine giden süreç | Doç. Dr. Nazmul İslam | Feyza Gümüşlüoğlu | Saat Farkı. Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkgJ6ZchpYc>

5- Islam, M. Nazmul (2024). Bangladesh 2.0: A new path for equality, human dignity and justice. Anadolu Agency, 06 August 2024. Available at https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/opinion-bangladesh-20-a-new-path-for-equality-human-dignity-and-justice/3297060